Roberta Stearns, at thirty-five, was a rather attractive woman. Slim, auburn hair brushed back, tall, even lithesome, with blue-grey eyes, she moved very well. She was rather plainly dressed in squashed heels and hose, a loose skirt and a half-sleeved blouse. June in Washington, D.C. can be quite warm. Being from a somewhat modest family, she joined the Army out of high school for three years as a way of paying for college. It helped. She served as a clerk in the logistics shop, traffic management office, for XVIIIth Airborne Corps at Fort Hood, TX. She was an E-4 at the end of her three-year tour. She acquired a bachelor’s degree in business administration from a central Midwestern university, but found it somewhat inane. She enrolled in a dual master’s program for history and political science in a major north central university in a large metropolitan area. She found the coursework in particular and the program in general so liberally biased and politically correct, she dropped it after three years. Her disenchantment with the program, combined with a disappointing love affair, caused her to decide to move west for a change of scenery and perhaps philosophy. She applied and was accepted into law school at the University of Wyoming. Completing her Juris Doctorate in only three years, she found that government service offered the most promise of steady employment where her skills could be applied and she would earn an acceptable income. Her parents were ecstatic, as they were both quite proud of their only daughter and almost bankrupt in financing her graduate education. She had also borrowed a great deal of money the last three years so that she could concentrate on her law studies.
Roberta Stearns followed Withers into the conference room. “Have some coffee or tea, or rolls, or breakfast, anything on the table, whatever you like; don’t be bashful, you can eat and talk, we are extremely informal here. We would all like to hear anything you have to say on the current situation.”
“Thank you, Mr. President. A cup of tea will be fine.” The steward looked at her, they exchanged glances, and she said “Two lumps, no lemon, thanks.” The steward smiled and served her hot tea as she took an empty chair at the end of the table.
You are probably aware of the North Korean attack across the South Korean border in a pre-dawn attack this morning. We are awaiting an update of details, but it appears to be a full-blown hell-bent-for-leather attack to re-unite the peninsula. That view was confirmed a little while ago by the North Korean ambassador, Pak, Whin –yu, whom I suspect you have met.”
“Yes, Mr. President, I have met Pak, Whin-yu, and I do not trust him or his government. I am not surprised by the attack. I have expected it for some time.”
“Can you tell us why you have expected this attack, Ms. Stearns?”
“Yes, Mr. President. I have had a very unpopular theory for several years that China is orchestrating a massive war on several fronts. I see that they must attack in order to avoid a combination of mass starvation, economic stagnation due to a strategic long-term shortage of energy and selected raw materials. Their economic growth has not kept up with their population growth, in spite of long-term attempts at population control. In my opinion, they have kept their true population demographics secret. I believe that this is only the opening move on a chess board. The Korean peninsula is but one maneuver.”
“This is going to be interesting. Please go on, Ms. Stearns.”
“First, the Chinese have established a tremendous trade deficit with us, one which will be difficult for us to overcome. We have become dependent on so many Chinese goods that it will be quite difficult to find other sources for our goods or to initiate manufacture of them ourselves. We have become so very dependent on China, literally, for much of our manufactured goods in all endeavors. Everything, from electronics to heavy appliances, to the routine, mundane things we use every day. It will take years to build the plants, train the workforce, and re-establish their manufacture in the United States. Europe is not all that far behind us in the same regard. The Chinese are well aware of this. China has become the manufacturing center of the world.
“Second, over the past several years, the Chinese have been more than friendly, even appearing to bend over backwards, so to speak, to present the image of a benevolent behemoth. This is consistent with their psychology of war, as first elucidated by Sun Tzu. ‘When you are strong, appear weak, when you are weak, appear strong.’ They have deliberately presented a most benign façade. This façade also served the purpose of duping the United States in to reducing its military capability, so that we could not respond to any crisis that they might generate. As certain politicians like to say, ‘Where’s the threat?’
“Third, the weather gods have been against the Chinese for the last decade. Our estimate of their grain reserves in 2007 was around 350 million metric tons. Due to several years of floods, then five years of severe drought, plus an increasing and youthful population, we believe these reserves are almost exhausted if they are already not depleted. Now, India’s population is nearly that of China’s. China now has to compete with India for food. India itself is acutely aware that the next green revolution has not materialized as many expected. The results have been quite disappointing on that issue.
“Fourth, intelligence sources indicate that China has been building a tremendous military type truck fleet, with an emphasis on a fleet of medium duty trucks. These are something like our classic military trucks that carry up to two and a half tons; hence its military nickname of ‘deuce and a half.’ To go along with this, road building programs through western and southern China have taken on an added impetus in the last five years. They have had major construction programs in western and southern China. To go along with the road building, they have been laying railroad tracks big time. What is there in western China that requires four major parallel rail lines? The answer is the oil of the Caspian Sea area.
“Many claim that this is simply an indication of growing internal commerce and transportation. Most of those trucks, however, have been camouflage painted, or painted in dull military colors.
“Fifth, when China put pressure on North Korea to end their nuclear program early in this decade, North Korea complied, somewhat too willingly to my way of thinking. I came to the conclusion that the only way that China could persuade North Korea to end its uranium enrichment, allow inspections of its facilities, and present a go-along face to the west was to promise, or provide them, with fissile materials or perhaps ready made Chinese nukes. We know that they also supplied oil and food to North Korea. This allowed North Korea to have its cake and eat it, too. They could develop nuclear power for domestic consumption and still have nuclear weapons.
“Sixth, North Korea has one of the most sophisticated and advanced biological weapons programs in the world, if not the most advanced. Intelligence reports, while few and far between and somewhat generalized, suggest that they have weaponized a number of pathogens for release on any major opponent.
“Seventh, they, China, have modestly trained and equipped a tremendous military reserve at minimal cost, while keeping their standing army at modest levels in terms of equipment and manpower. This reserve has been concentrated in rural areas, but also some of the population centers along the coast. Estimates of the size of this reserve vary from one hundred million men to two hundred million men. We really don’t know how big it is. While Mr. Pak, Whin-yu has told me that this is a method of keeping peace in the rural areas, to prevent roving gangs of marauders seeking food, raping women and the essentials of life, I believe they have a more sinister primary purpose.
“Eighth, they have created several consortiums with Pakistan. One of which has built their new joint venture, multi-role jet aircraft, the FC-1 Dragon. Pakistan has built quite a number of these aircraft in the last few years, as has China. How many, we don’t precisely know. As a multi-role aircraft, they appear to be a bit superior to the European Tornado, with an emphasis on ground attack. Additionally, Pakistan has also emphasized building a quite large fleet of medium-sized military trucks. Ammunition plants in both China and Pakistan have been producing substantial amounts of small arms ammunition for about four years. It is stored in various depots in both countries.
“That, Mr. President, in a nutshell, is what I think about this attack.”
“If China is behind this, Ms. Stearns, why aren’t they pouring across the Yalu to assist the North Koreans?”
“Very simply, Mr. President, I believe the Chinese are going to use North Korea as a surrogate, and possibly others, and utilize their tremendous reserve manpower to attack in other directions.”
Margaret Talbott seemed to explode. “Ms. Stearns, this is what I have heard from you before, but you offer no concrete proof of this. How you can draw such conclusions that China will attack its neighbors without more definitive evidence is not the way to conduct the affairs of state! When I sent for you, I did not expect that you would present such a full-blown theory against the Chinese. Rather, that you would limit yourself to known facts.”
The President waved a hand to quiet Marge Talbott. “Please go on, Ms. Stearns, I find this quite fascinating. Far-fetched, yes, but not outside the realm of possibility. Anything is possible. Please, go on.”
“Well, the road building program to the west and south, the military truck procurement program, their shortage of oil, their massive buildup of reserves and small arms ammunition all suggest to me that they plan to move west and south. Perhaps they will go through the Malayan peninsula, perhaps to eliminate India as competition for food and as a threat, one or both.”
“Ed, what do you make of Ms. Stearns theory?”
“Mr. President, it is quite far-fetched and extremely unlikely, yet everything she has said regarding the reasons is factual. However, I don’t think it will occur. It is so unlikely that I think we can dismiss it.”
“Anything else you would like to say, Ms. Stearns?”
“No, Mr. President, I have said more than enough. Still, I feel obligated to express my theory, however it is regarded. That is what I am paid to do.”
The President smiled. “Indeed, it is, Ms. Stearns, and I appreciate it. If you would please stay close. I might wish to confer with you later. Leave your cell phone number and any other numbers where we might reach you with my secretary on your way out. Don’t leave town. I appreciate your candor and your prompt response.”
“Thank you, Mr. President.” Roberta Stearns got up and was escorted out by Johnny Withers. Withers smiled and said to Stearns, “That was a pretty good show you put on in there. Stick by your guns, lady, you have done better than you think.”
Roberta smiled and said thanks, and Johnny left her in the presence of the President’s secretary.
Johnny Withers walked to the President. “Sir, the Joint Chiefs are assembled in the war room in the basement.”
“Let’s adjourn down there and join the Chiefs,” said the President. “Have the Director of Homeland Security join us in the war room, Johnny, as soon as he arrives.” After the President stood, so did all the others, and they trooped downstairs, led by the President and trailed by his personal bodyguard, Robert Lee. Withers directed the Homeland Security Chief, who had just arrived and was in the waiting room, to join them.
Chapter 12
Multiple video screens were on the wall, displaying live satellite images of varying points around the world, but mostly on the Korean peninsula and the surrounding waters. Most disturbing were the massive columns of armor, men and trucks moving across the DMZ into South Korea at numerous points. Another screen depicted the air battles going on all over the peninsula. Another portrayed the Sea of Japan, while another, the Yellow Sea.
“Ed, do you have any update from your people in Seoul?”
“No, Mr. President, I do not. Apparently, they are overrun, as our liaison office there has been bombed, all telephone communications are being jammed at the local level through microwave interference there, and the South Koreans are in general too busy to respond. What information we have, Mr. President, is what is presented on the screens right here.”
“General Craig, how do you read it?”
“The South Koreans were slow to respond the first four hours. They took a pretty good beating, but they are stiffening now. The reserves were a bit slow in getting mobilized, but they are getting their act together, and the attack has slowed a bit. That is partly due to the roadblocks being dropped in place, several bridges being blown, and the roads having artillery delivered mines scattered on them. Heavy fighting is going on around Seoul. From what we surmise, the South Korean forward artillery did a pretty good job, but they were overrun, or at least silenced, about an hour ago. The South Korean Air Force has suffered significant losses. They were caught on the ground initially, but their pilots are far more skilled than their North Korean counterparts. They have taken out a number of North Korean aircraft. A few North Korean aviators, however, seem exceptionally skilled. They probably were trained out of country. Trouble is, all of the South Korean air bases got hit pretty hard. They took a lot of rocket hits as well as strafing by the North’s air force. We tracked their incoming missiles by satellite. I must say, they were surprisingly accurate. We don’t know the current condition of the South’s air bases. They were hit as far as south as Pusan. We don’t know if we can get in or not.”
