“Mr. President, Robert Lee wants to take a little leave. He has put his request in through his channels, but the Treasury guys want to know if it is OK with you. They can assign somebody else as your personal bodyguard without difficulty, or two or three if you like. It seems that Robert wants to go fishing in Canada again. He says he has a good deal on a guided trip up in Ontario for pike and muskies the next week. He’s anxiously awaiting your decision to make the phone call for reservations.”
Jason Thornton smiled. “Of course, Peggy, Robert can go fishing. I wish I could go myself. This job is very tiring. I could use a little vacation, and I haven’t had one since I took office almost two years ago. Right now, though, I’m just afraid to do so. Sure, let the poor boy go.”
Born to parents shortly after their emigration from Hong Kong in the 1980s, Robert-wha Lee was a second generation Chinese American and a current bodyguard to the President of the United States for the third year. He took several fishing trips a year, usually to Minnesota, Manitoba or Ontario. Sometimes, he employed a guide service, but often he went alone. His parents raised him under the strict hierarchy of the Chinese family. They inculcated a love of China in him from the day he was born. He excelled as a scholar-athlete. He won a scholarship to Princeton on being an outstanding high school football wide receiver with a 4.0 average. At Princeton, he played wide receiver on the gridiron for three years and majored in pre-law with an emphasis on criminal justice. After three years of undergraduate work, he was accepted to and attended Princeton’s law school. Upon graduation, he applied to the FBI Academy and was accepted. Upon graduation, he was a field officer for two years and then joined the hostage-rescue team for two more. His athletic prowess and karate skills as a member of the elite FBI HRT unit made him a prime candidate for bodyguard assignments for Very Important Persons. Upon request of the Treasury Department, he was laterally transferred and assigned as a bodyguard to the Vice President for one year, then to the President. He served President Dorn admirably and then became Jason Thornton’s personal bodyguard. He also served China very well.
Wednesday, 30 October 2022
“Service Chiefs, welcome once more to our tri-weekly meetings. From now on, you are all invited to attend. I very much appreciate your presence and encourage you to speak freely. At this table, everyone’s ideas and comments are important.
I have asked our SECDEF to have the Navy put together a briefing for the cabinet this morning, and I want this information to be understood by all members of the cabinet. It affects everybody, including Health and Human Services, Interior, Treasury, and so on, because it will impact on everybody’s budget at the very least. So, we’ll lead off with the briefing by Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Stark. Admiral, the floor is yours.”
“Thank you, Mr. President. The objective of this briefing is to inform you specifically of the Chinese submarine threat and, more generally, of the Chinese Navy. Referred to as the PLAN, or Chinese Liberation Army Navy, they have more or less a unified command structure. Over the last ten years, the Chinese have pretty much emulated the United States in many aspects. This translates to their forming their version of the Reserve Officers Training Corps at their universities and colleges. From all appearances, this is turning out quality junior officers, especially for the Navy. Many of these young people are joining the submarine service because it is the bedrock of the Chinese Navy. These people are receiving first rate training, equal in all respects to that which we give our naval officers. Their people are well screened, which provides them with the officers who are aggressive, can think for themselves, show initiative, and can stand confinement in submarines for weeks at a time.
“The Chinese strategy is simply that they believe the best answer to our carrier battle groups is the submarine. They can’t compete on the surface, so they feel that stealth is their answer to asymmetric warfare. They have all classes of submarines, nuclear attack, ballistic missile nuclear boats, and diesel attack submarines. It is the last category, the diesel attack submarine that offers the greatest threat to our blue water Navy. The diesel attack submarine is the ideal weapons system for the littoral environment. It can do double duty as a blue-water system as well, provided it can be replenished at sea, or can return to its base every four to twelve weeks, depending upon a variety of factors.
“These submarines and surface ships of the line have been practicing as combined arms teams for the last five or so years. The Chinese have also taken a lesson from the Germans in World War II. These submarines are practicing in hunter-killer groups, the so-called Wolf Packs of the Germans in the North Atlantic. Some of their documents even indicate they are willing to sacrifice their older submarines as bait to lure our Los Angeles Class submarines into attacking them, thus revealing their position to the more deadly Song II submarines lurking undetected in the area.
“Starting in the closing years of the last decade, the Chinese began buying state of the art Russian submarines. In the opening few years of this century, they purchased Project 636 Kilo class submarines, Russia’s best. These are air-independent propulsion diesel engine submarines. They can remain submerged for perhaps as many as four or more weeks without having to surface or snorkel. They can cruise quietly at three to five knots at depths up to five hundred meters for weeks at a time. If this isn’t enough, the Chinese have developed their own models, what they call the Song II class of submarines. They have been buying diesel engine systems, the best that the world has to offer, from the Germans. Their primary propulsion plant is a 1040-kilowatt diesel engine for recharging their eight membrane cells and surface movement. They have forty-kilowatt Siemens polymer electrolytic membrane fuel cells for underwater power. These are what allow them to remain submerged and quiet for so long. These are among the world’s best, if not the best, diesel submarines. They are far quieter than our Los Angeles class nuclear attack submarines. They have applied stealth technology to them, which is particularly hard for our submarines to detect. In fact, we believe that three-fourths of the time, we don’t detect them at all. When we do, it has been a matter of luck more than anything. These submarines have a skewed seven-blade propeller, can launch both anti-ship cruise missiles and land attack cruise missiles while submerged, and carry the best Russian torpedoes. Recall the Kursk, the Russian submarine that sank in 2001 with all hands aboard. They wouldn’t let us help rescue their sailors because they didn’t want to reveal their super cavitational torpedo which was in the research stage. The Chinese have adopted this torpedo. It blows a tremendous air bubble in front of itself, so that it is actually traveling in air rather than water. It has been clocked at 200 nautical miles per hour under water. This is no joke or exaggeration. No ship within ten miles can maneuver fast enough to escape it. Not only have they deployed this torpedo, but they also are equipped with second generation 53-65KE wake homing torpedoes, 73ME wire-guided torpedoes and independent sonar guided torpedoes.
“To go along with the diesel submarine threat, the Chinese have had a marked program of underwater exploration all along their southern coast extending into Southeast Asia. I am referring to underwater topographic map making. This will allow them to identify any submarine lying quietly on the bottom any time they want to scan the ocean floor. This technology is also valuable for mine-counter-mine warfare. There are reports, as yet unconfirmed, that they have also conducted some underwater mapping and exploration off the Indian subcontinent. That information came from the Indian Navy, which no longer exists. The Indian Navy experienced significant losses, many of which are believed to have been to submarines. Unfortunately, there is no way to confirm whose submarines, Pakistan’s or China’s. Since China and Pakistan had a mutual assistance treaty, it is not unreasonable to regard many of these sinkings as due to the Chinese Navy. They might have conducted these operations for practice against the United States Navy.
“We believe that many of these state-of-the-art diesel submarines are now deployed all around Taiwan, literally in a circle. While they have more or less completed the conquest of Southeast Asia, their navy and army and air forces have significant forces standing by on their coastline, apparently poised for an invasion of Taiwan. If they do launch an invasion, and we go to the aid of Taiwan, these submarines will constitute a major threat to our carrier battle groups.
“In this regard, we are somewhat skeptical that they will launch an attack against Taiwan at this time, but one can never be certain of that. The Chinese have surprised us many times before. Our reasoning for skepticism at this point is that they appear to lack sufficient landing craft and carrier vessels, such as our LHA and LHD classes of ships, like the USS Iwo Jima and the USS Bataan, to launch an invasion. Then, too, their invasion of Southeast Asia and now the Indian peninsula would argue that they are concentrating their land forces elsewhere.
“As if the diesel Song II subs aren’t enough of a threat, the Chinese now have blue water nuclear attack submarines they call the Type 93. They are similarly equipped with the same torpedoes as the Song II submarine fleet. Their mission is to engage our carrier battle groups in the blue water, before they reach the littorals, where the engagement will continue with the Song IIs. These Type 93 boats are at least equal to our Los Angeles attack submarines and probably approach the capabilities of our Virginia Class of nuclear attack submarines. Our Los Angeles class nuclear attack submarines are all platforms that are between thirty and forty years old. We have twenty-five left in the fleet, spread around the world. They can’t be upgraded to include more modern technology. We only have three of the newer Virginia class attack submarines. Congress eliminated the program in the 1990s as a cost saving measure. We believe the Chinese have at least twenty Type 93 attack boats.
“Regarding ballistic missile submarines, the Chinese have what they call the Type 94. It carries sixteen intermediate range, that is, 8,000-kilometer range, and ballistic land attack missiles. These are very quiet boats, evolutionarily derived from the Russian Typhoon missile submarines that used to prowl our coasts in the days of the Cold War. These missiles can be launched while submerged, the same as ours. We are not sure how many they have of these submarines; estimates vary from between two and ten. These missiles carry up to six MIRV, or multiple independent re-entry vehicles, warheads. The warheads can be nuclear or biological in nature. The nuclear warheads are believed to be about twenty-five kiloton yield. We lost this technology, essentially gave it to the Chinese through espionage, through the downloading of critical data from Los Alamos Laboratories onto personal computers about fourteen years ago. That cost us billions and gave the Chinese a twenty year leap of technological research.
“The Russians also sold them a couple of Oscar II Class SSGN, that’s ship, submersible, guided missile, nuclear, a couple of years back. The Kursk, that was the sub that sank when they were testing their cavitational torpedo, was one of the first. These are cruise missile carrying nuclear submarines. These are 154 meters along the beam, depth tested to 600 meters, carry 24 ‘Granite’ supersonic cruise missiles with a 550-kilometer range. They carry eighteen missiles or torpedoes in reserve. They have torpedo tubes for both the 650 mm torpedoes and 533 mm bow torpedo tubes. In short, they can fire all classes of torpedoes. They have 100,000 horsepower drive trains and can do thirty-three knots submerged.
“In monitoring sales of technology, we believe all of these submarines have utilized state of the art off-the-shelf technology for digital sonar systems and signal processing.
“In terms of the surface fleet, we have very recently seen large ocean going catamarans which we believe can carry a thousand tons or more of cargo. They appear to be about 350 feet long, double hulled, and probably made of aluminum. We’re not sure just how seaworthy these craft are, but they appear to be quite fast, thirty-five knots an hour, modular, and cheaply constructed. We think they might be a supply fleet for a land invasion, but that is speculation on our part. If they remain in the littoral waters, seaworthiness might not be as significant as blue water capability. We don’t know how many of these ships are in the inventory, or how many they plan to build.
“In terms of ships of the line, they have been building a fleet of guided missile patrol boats. These are a derivative of our concept of the littoral combat ship. They are fast, up to forty knots, carry automatic multi-purpose 57 mm Bofors guns, two torpedo tubes which we suspect house anti-submarine torpedoes, and four pods of four anti-aircraft missiles each, and two modular anti-ship units with four ship to ship cruise missiles for a total of eight. They have towed array sonar and medium range radar. They have a crew of about 50 men and officers. They pack an awfully lot of firepower in a small package. They have what appears to us to have a very small boom on the back and a rail. These are believed to be for launching and recovering small unmanned aerial vehicles. If so, these give them even greater versatility with over-the-horizon vision.
“In 2002, the Chinese launched the first of several guided missile destroyers, which they call Project 52B. These are 6,000-ton ships that carry up to 48 surface to air missiles, surface anti-ship missiles, what appear to be anti-submarine torpedoes, twin 100-mm guns, and a helicopter. Pictures yield what are believed to be phased array radar. They also have considerable sonar capability. They have been building about eight of these boats every year since then. It would appear that they will be the backbone of the surface fleet. Relatively small for what they carry, they employ considerable stealth technology. With fleets of these destroyers and patrol boats, they pose a considerable threat to invasion through littoral waters. That concludes the briefing. Are there any questions, Mr. President? Anyone?”
“Thank you, Admiral. With that background, it seems logical to assume their primary objective is the Persian Gulf. They have to go through or north of Iran to get the Caspian Basin. Why should they go for the lesser resources of the Caspian Basin when they might be able to take Iran and the Gulf? It seems obvious to me that they are going to control the Arabian Sea. Let me hear arguments to the contrary? Ms. Stearns, you earlier suggested the Caspian Basin over the Gulf. What’s your thinking on that?”
“Mr. President, I think that if they go for Iran and the Gulf, they are smart enough to realize they will provoke the United States, Japan, and Europe against them. Russia and the United States have enough nuclear power to annihilate the Chinese homeland, and they know it. The Caspian Sea Basin resources will satisfy their energy requirements for the next twenty-five to thirty years. By that time, they will be able to take the Persian Gulf without a fight, as they will dominate all of Asia and be so overpowering that no one or coalition will dare to oppose them. Another factor is Iran itself. They are extending themselves over thousands of miles on three fronts. How far can they go? Then there are the Iranian people. Iran is one of the most truculent nations or peoples in history. The Chinese have yet to encounter anyone so well armed and dedicated as the Iranians. The Iranians would fight them every step of the way, at a tremendous cost to both sides. I don’t think they want to tangle with Iran. Iranians would blow their own wells, I am sure; the devastation and pollution would be worse than the Iraqi retreat from Kuwait in 1991. I think they are smarter than that.”
“How do you explain this extraordinary buildup of naval power? How does that fit in with the Caspian Sea Basin as their objective?”
“It is possible that they intend to control the Arabian Sea but not move into the Gulf itself. If they control the shipping out of the Gulf, they don’t need to take the Persian Gulf itself. They can establish their bases of interdiction along the southern coast of Pakistan and western coast of India. They will also control the Straits of Malacca which will allow them to choke down Japan any time they choose. Korea is already written off as any kind of power at all. Korea will be a very modest source of food stuffs, provided they can get anybody to go in there and farm rice and raise livestock, given all the tactical nukes that went off on the peninsula.”
“Jim, where do we stand in our cooperation with the Japanese on state-of-the-art anti-submarine warfare? How soon are we going to be able to take on these quiet diesel subs and win 90% of the time?”
“We have shared technology, utilizing the latest off-the-shelf hardware and have made good progress in these last several months, Mr. President. Both we and the Japanese have jumped ahead, far better than each going it alone. Overall, I would have to say, though, that we got the better end of the deal. They were farther ahead than any of us thought. Another couple of years, and it will be a done deed.”
“Jim, I don’t think we have a couple of years. If we have a couple of months more, we will be lucky. I mean, how soon can these new anti-submarine suites be installed on all of our subs, Japanese and American, and crews trained, and be ready to kick ass?”
“That, Mr. President, I am not prepared to answer at this time. I can only hazard a guess of a year for our current Los Angeles class subs, probably a little less if we push full steam ahead. We might do just as well with the new DDX ships.”
“Admiral Stark, I want state-of-the-art installed on one submarine of each of our classes today and training of the crews initiated. Call it field testing if you like. If you think it indicated, get Japanese experts onboard with our crews to help. We will do the same for them. Jim, you and the Admiral call on the Japanese ambassador today with that proposal. We can’t start soon enough. I think they will be only too eager to share.
“Admiral Stark, what, in your opinion, would be the result of testing our subs against the Chinese mainland’s anti-submarine defenses? Would it alert them? Would it help them develop countermeasures? Would we be giving away methods and information we shouldn’t?”
“Mr. President, we have been testing our subs against their ring of subs around Taiwan. It has been a mixed bag. We are working and learning, but so are they. I wouldn’t care to predict an outcome. We are finding their diesel subs are awfully quiet. We usually don’t find them before they find us. They let us know they have us in their sights when they hit us with a ping. I don’t like it at all. We just quietly slip away then with our tail between our legs.”
“At one time during the Cold War, we had sonar buoys anchored to the ocean floor. They were given away by the Walker family of spies in the employ of the Russians in the 1980s. Can we do something like that again to monitor the most likely submarine approaches to our coast? I realize that we have an enormous coastline, but we should concentrate on the Pacific side. Where will they put their missile carrying submarines? Off our west coast cities, right? Can we, do we have enough of these buoys to employ them off our cities? How far out do we have to put them? I don’t know the technical aspects but check into that and see if we can put passive buoys out there. Let me know what you can do. Is a week enough time for you to get some answers on that, Admiral Stark? If it is possible, go ahead and get started, don’t wait for my OK. Get it done.”
“I’ll get some answers to you sooner than that, Mr. President. We will do what we can with what we have while we work on improving and expanding whatever resources we have ready to field.”
“What about passive mines? Can we mine our own coast? Do we have mines that can release homing torpedoes against a sub? Can we integrate those with our buoys? Can we program them to not detonate against our own ships or neutral shipping, but against enemy submarines? Can we code them to tell the difference, or will they have to be controlled from shore? I am open to any and all possibilities to protect us against the threat of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. God, why didn’t we fund the necessary research for all this way back in the 1990s?”
Johnny Withers walked into the room and handed President Thornton a piece of paper. The room fell quiet as Thornton read it. He took off his glasses, sighed and looked at his cabinet and officers. “Singapore has just announced that it has reached conciliation with the People’s Republic of China. Singapore will become a Chinese city. The Chinese will not occupy Singapore en masse but will ‘manage’ the city and its economy. It will become another Hong Kong. The Chinese Army will stop its main line of march twenty-five kilometers north of the city. Strict orders have been issued to the Chinese soldiers that Singaporeans are not to be molested in any way. Food, water and raw materials will continue to flow into the city as usual. It is to be considered an open city managed by Chinese officials. Singapore, however, will not accept any refugees.”
Thornton looked up. “Well, hell, if the Chinese are stopping twenty-five kilometers out and have been consuming everything in their line of march, where are the citizens of Singapore going to get their food and water anyway? That’s a city of several million people. How are they going to keep the refugees out? Turn guns on their neighbors fleeing south? I guess the Chinese will have to feed and water them if they want the city to remain solvent and a center of technological excellence, manufacturing and trade. Singapore has a great harbor as well; it’s one of the world’s super ports, automated as it can be. I wonder if that has anything to do with this conciliation. Ed, let’s keep a close watch on what happens around Singapore. I can see why they want the city-state and its population intact. It is extremely wealthy, with a highly educated and technologically superior population.”
Withers then handed the President a second piece of paper. It was from the British government. He read it out loud. “Given the agreement between the governments of Singapore and the People’s Republic of China, Chinese troops will form a protective cordon around Singapore to stop the influx of refugees. Refugees will be fired upon if they attempt to breach the cordon, according to Chinese officials with whom British Embassy personnel had spoken earlier today. The BBC will carry a live broadcast from Singapore on their 22:00 hours news program. The Chinese representatives also stated that civil disobedience in Singapore will not be tolerated.” That meant it would make the 18:00 hours, or six o’clock evening news, on the east coast of the United States.
Chapter 30
“I guess that means Chinese troops will drive down the highways and establish a line of troops that completely severs the peninsula just above Singapore. The refugees will be caught between the hammer and the anvil, and very few will survive. It also means that the large segment of the population of Singapore that is ethnic Chinese will be protected. That will give the Chinese an excuse to enter the city and break the agreement. If there are no riots, the Chinese will probably create one.”
“Are there any indications that the Chinese are entering Korea, Ed?”
“No, Mr. President, at this time there are no indications that they intend to invade Korea. Everything seems oriented towards the west right now. I hope that makes Japan feel safer. The Chinese probably think they won’t have any trouble taking Korea any time they wish now, and they are right. Korea, now one country, more or less, is theirs for the taking. It is essentially set back forty years and no threat whatsoever. At the worst scenario, it will be the classic springboard for an invasion of Japan, as described by the Prussian advisor to Japan in the 1890s that led to the Russo-Japanese war, as a ‘dagger pointed at the heart of Japan.’ That is what the Japanese are so worried about.”
“What do any of you think of getting some food shipments to Korea?”
“No way, Mr. President. Their transportation network is destroyed. There is no way to distribute it, no indigenous capability to do so, no warehouses, vehicles or people. Any foreigner who would go into a land that suffered so many tactical nuclear blasts needs his or her head examined. Anybody who does so is an idiot. Then there are the problems with distribution itself even if someone could. I am referring to rioting, black market activities, outright banditry and assault of those delivering and trying to distribute it. Sorry to be so pessimistic, Mr. President.”
“That’s all right, General Anderson. You have been there as the former UN Commander and know the situation better than anybody. I’m glad you spoke with such finality that you quickly ended that idea without further discussion.”
“Dr. Allison, anything you want to say about radiation or any other public health threats? Where do we stand on that?”
“The Chinese planned it very well, Mr. President. Pakistan and India essentially neutralized each other. While there are many initial survivors in the cities, they will die, fast or slow, depending upon the dosage of radiation poisoning, opportunistic infections as a result of radiation induced immune-incompetence, malnutrition, and just the bloodthirsty strong preying upon the weak for meager resources such as food and potable water. The radiation fallout is more or less contained on the Asian subcontinent by southeasterly winds that blow it onto the Himalayas during the rainy season. The rains wash it down the slopes and into the great rivers. Punjab, incidentally, means land between the five rivers, and onto the plains of India and Pakistan. There, it kills millions more and is ultimately washed into the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. In the fall, the winds are reversed, blowing from the northeast to the southwest, carrying away any residual airborne particles, blowing it back over India and Pakistan. Their troops march in during the fall before winter begins to a mostly cleansed land to pick up the pieces.”
“How many dead are you estimating, Doctor?”
“There is no way to even provide a reasonable guess, Mr. President. Pakistan had over a hundred and fifty million people; India was approaching two billion souls. Those in the hills and mountains stand a much better chance of survival, at least initially, than those of the cities. India suffered greater casualty rates because of the terrain, the climate, winds, population concentrations, and so on. At least they didn’t target Afghanistan, or if they have, nobody has told me about it. As for the number and range of yield of weapons exchanged, I haven’t seen the data. That will have some influence as well. Sunlight will be reduced for a while, particularly in that region. That will make winter that much more difficult. The nuclear winter theory most likely will come into play on a modest scale. That will make survival harder for those who have made it thus far. Food and uncontaminated water will be an immediate problem. The cereal grains that were not harvested, which constitute the majority of the diet of those peoples, will be severely contaminated. Hunger, infections, increased severity of the coming winter, and psychological depression will all come together. Certainly, the dead number in the hundreds of millions, but how many hundreds of millions is anybody’s guess.
“As for radiation reaching the United States, I don’t think we will have too much to worry about. While we will see an increase, it will be very modest in size, and much of the radiation will be washed out of the skies by rains over the Pacific Ocean. The public needs to be informed of that, and I had the people at the Centers for Disease Prevention and Control work up another public education program. It will be released later this week so as to educate and avoid any noise about a public panic generated by an ignorant media.”
