“Vassily, it’s Jason Thornton here. I trust you are aware of the Indian mobilization in the Kashmir region.”
“Yes, Jason, we are closely monitoring the situation. It is of grave concern to us. If it goes nuclear, we are very much concerned about where the fallout will settle and about the refugee problem it will create. It is quite possible that it will create a domino effect. Kashmiris will flee to Pakistan; Pakistanis will flee to Tajikistan and Afghanistan. Those countries cannot support them and will quite possibly pass them on to other Central Asian states. While still a long way away from our southern border, they have the potential for tremendous turmoil and possibly violence. Who will feed them?”
“Yes, Vassily, I must agree with that. The world’s food supply, or at the moment, its distribution, is sufficiently in jeopardy as it is. With displaced peoples, the pressure on that supply only increases. That is not the most hospitable region of the world, either. Winters, I understand, can be very harsh, and potable water will be a major problem.”
“This time of year, the winds blow from the south, off the Arabian Sea. The Indian monsoons will continue into September. If there is much fallout, millions of square miles can be contaminated, depending upon the yield of the weapons used, the height of the burst, how the nuclear devices are tailored for effect, and the nature of the terrain in which they are detonated. Now, that will change in several weeks, but who knows if they will restrain the nuclear genie for that long?”
“Are you taking any precautions at this time, Vassily? Are you ordering an alert of your military or something, or giving out iodine tablets or anything at all?”
“No, Jason, at the moment we are very uneasy, but doing nothing more than monitoring the situation. Have you made any decisions? Will you commit to any peace process, arm twisting, as you call it? You still have some influence with Pakistan, I take it?”
“No, Vassily, we have not initiated any action at this time. As you, we are closely monitoring the situation. We find it most disturbing, but it does not directly impact upon us, at least not at this time. Your point about the winds carrying fallout, though, is appropriate. We recall the Chernobyl accident you experienced some years ago, and how the winds carried some of it across the Pacific. All of our satellites are not back in order, but we do have aircraft offshore observing and listening. But no, we have not committed to anything. I will certainly inform you of any proposed action before we initiate it. After all, that is your back yard.”
“Russia will do the same. We will inform you of any steps which we might take. It has been pleasant speaking with you, Mr. President. Russia sends her best. Thank you.”
President Thornton punched his intercom button, “Peggy, get me Secretary Talbott on the phone, please. Thanks.”
A few minutes later, Marge Talbott was on the line. “Marge, I want you to have a runner send over the files on our ambassador to Pakistan, and on the Pakistani ambassador to us. Pick someone who knows both men to come over tomorrow. Peggy will set up the appointment. I want to get a feel for them. Then I want to meet the Pakistani ambassador in a day or two. Please keep me up to date on anything you hear on what’s going on with Pakistan and India.”
“Yes, Mr. President. I’ll have the files there within the hour. I’ll have to feel around to see who knows both men. That might take me a while, but I’ll get right on it. I’ll call Peggy when I have something set up.”
“Thanks, Marge. Talk to you later.”
Punching his intercom button, “Peggy, have Johnny get me a map showing India, Pakistan and that region of the world. I want to look at the geography.” Johnny Withers, sitting in Peggy’s office, heard the word, waved to Peggy, and went to the White House library. He was back with the maps in ten minutes. Jason Thornton studied the map with a magnifying glass, concentrating on Kashmir. The requested files arrived within the hour. After he read them, Jason Thornton set them aside, and his concern increased.
At 16:00 that day, a middle-aged bureaucrat who had served as an assistant to the Ambassador to Pakistan six years ago stood before President Thornton.
“Yes, Mr. President, I know both our current ambassador to Pakistan and the Pakistani ambassador. Both are quite knowledgeable and suave individuals. What can I tell you about them?”
“Thank you for coming, Mr. Tremble. How is it that you know both men?”
“I was the Science and Business Attaché to Pakistan from 2004 to 2008. As such, I dealt a lot with the business and scientific communities of Pakistan. I had frequent contact with Mr. Perchay, Pakistan’s current ambassador to us. I met him frequently both informally and formally. He was educated at Princeton where he earned a master’s degree in physics. After that, he went to Wharton School of Economics to study management. He was always trying to entice American business to invest in Pakistan. He is a very intelligent and shrewd individual, Mr. President. He bears watching.
“I know our current ambassador to Pakistan less well than I do Ambassador Perchay. After our invasion of Afghanistan, he studied Pashto at the Department of Defense Language School at Monterey, California. He already spoke fluent Farsi, which impressed me. He came to Pakistan in 2007, so we had a year overlap. When I left in 2008, he went to Pakistan as the Deputy Ambassador because of his linguistic abilities. After our ambassador there retired in 2010, he was promoted into the position. He, too, is extremely ambitious. He is also very smart.”
“I want to get a feel for the potential for Pakistan to go to war over Kashmir. As you know, there is an exchange of gunfire going on as we speak. I am concerned that Pakistan might go nuclear because of the overwhelming superiority of India. How can our ambassador to Pakistan best convey our concerns? I want absolutely no miscommunications here. Secondly, I am going to invite the Pakistani Ambassador to meet with me in the next day or so. Since you know him, I would like to have you present. Are you good at reading body language? Can you interpret between the lines of what he says for me? That is what I am asking.”
“Yes, Mr. President. I would be delighted to be present. I will do my best to ‘read’ what Ambassador Perchay is saying, or perhaps not saying. We had numerous meetings, both formally and socially, so I know him rather well. While I have never considered myself an expert at reading body language, I will do my best. As regards to our own Ambassador Brown, he will have no difficulty in conveying your precise meaning to the Pakistani government, Mr. President. I have long felt that Pakistan and India would ultimately come to nuclear blows over Kashmir.”
“Why, Mr. Tremble, do you think it will be nuclear war over Kashmir?”
“Mr. President, Jammu and Kashmir has been the fire hot emotional push-button issue between India and Pakistan since they separated in 1948 to become the Muslim state of Pakistan and the Hindu state of India. The west simply cannot appreciate the intensity of the emotional attachment of both sides over who controls Jammu and Kashmir. The emotional aspect is every bit as important as the population, perhaps the paramount issue. Jammu and Kashmir controls, or perhaps I should say, contains, much of the sources of water for South Asia. Who controls the area literally has control over south central Asia. They are willing to deploy nuclear fires on each other over who owns the Siachen Glacier. It is not inaccurate to say the area is intensely thirsty. The religious intolerance between the Hindus of India and the Muslims of Pakistan is equally contentious.”
“Mr. Tremble, if it goes nuclear, who, in your opinion, will launch the first bomb?”
“I am confident that the answer to that, Mr. President, is Pakistan. That is because they will feel severely threatened and have no option but to launch a first strike. Their first targets, naturally, will be the Indian nuclear-capable units and sites, followed by their conventional military forces.”
“Anything else you would like to add, Mr. Tremble?”
“No, Mr. President, unless there is something specific you would like to ask?”
“Thank you very much for coming. Please leave all of your phone numbers with my secretary, Peggy, so she can get ahold of you to set up the meeting with Ambassador Perchay, Secretary Talbott, and myself.”
At 14:00 the following day, President Thornton welcomed Ambassador Perchay, Secretary Talbott and Mr. Tremble into his office.
“Mr. Ambassador, can I offer you a cup of tea, or perhaps something else?”
With a very gracious smile, “Yes, thank you, Mr. President. That would be lovely. It is nice to meet with Mr. Tremble again. I am sure he has told you that we had many pleasant and interesting meetings when he was in Pakistan. It is also nice to meet you again, Mr. President. I certainly enjoyed myself at your ambassadorial ball.”
Tremble was right, thought Thornton. He is a smooth son-of-a-bitch!
Johnny Withers and a waiter brought in a tea service and served everyone while Mssrs. Tremble and Perchay conducted small talk, asking and informing each other of what had transpired with them since their last meeting. After Withers and the waiter left the room, President Thornton spoke. “I’m sure you know why I invited you here, Mr. Ambassador. We are greatly concerned over the hostilities between Pakistan and India in Kashmir. We certainly hope it will not expand and most definitely would like to see such hostilities cease. Can you tell us how this will play out?”
“Mr. President, Pakistan absolutely has no wish to go to war with India or anyone else. We certainly cannot match India in any strategic category. For us to go to war would be the utmost folly. No, we will do almost anything to avoid such a conflict.”
“How then, Mr. Ambassador, will this current hostility end?”
“Mr. President, I cannot predict it, but if we, Pakistan, can, we will end it today. All we ask is that we be left in peace. These raids by Hindus into our territory and their persecution of Muslims in Jammu and Kashmir must cease. We will do nothing more than is needed to protect our people and our territory.”
“Will your nation and India ever peacefully settle the question of boundaries in the region?”
“Frankly, Mr. President, that is too much to ask for. No, I see us being at odds over this issue until some great power which can exert absolute control over both of us forces the settlement. I see no great power in our region which can do that. Perhaps in the next century, if a one-world government comes into being, with sufficient military power to enforce its will, a settlement might be imposed. We are as bad as the Jews of Israel and the Palestinians in this.”
“Will Pakistan use nuclear weapons if a full-scale war erupts, Mr. Ambassador?”
“Heavens no, Mr. President! Pakistan will never be the first to, as you Americans say, ‘let the nuclear genie out of the bottle’ in our region. We completely agree with America on that issue. With the nuclear devices detonated on the Korean peninsula and the destruction they have wrought, what we see in Korea is certainly a lesson for all of us. Unfortunately, their use could potentially become widespread, especially since technology has allowed the development of much smaller, tactical nuclear weapons as we have seen deployed.”
“And does Pakistan have such small, tactical nuclear weapons, Mr. Ambassador?”
