Monitoring stations were established at various institutions around the country to measure fallout. There was a mad rush on by the American public to purchase Geiger-Mueller counters to measure radiation around their homes and yards. The American public verged on hysteria. In Japan, hysteria became the norm.
“What do you have so far on the Chinese bodyguard, Ed?”
“Mr. Director, we moved half a dozen of the more talkative prisoners from the Army’s Mexican raid here to L.A. for questioning. We’re holding them in our own facility rather than the local one for convenience and to keep them out of the reach of possible harm or identification by unknown others. These Mexican prisoners from our raid into Mexico identified Mr. Chan as the Japanese businessman who occasionally visited Gonzalez’s camp in Mexico. Only they said they heard him addressed as Señor Ito. They thought he was Japanese. Our Chan, their Mr. Ito, visited the same Mexican restaurant this week as he did last week. He was accompanied by his usual one bodyguard, of course. He was also identified by the Mexicans as the other bodyguard for Chan. Why does a clerk have a constant bodyguard? One of our undercover folks followed him in, but Chan and company went to a private room in the back. They were waited on by the guy that runs the place both this week and last week. He’s known to the local police. He has been identified as an associate, shall I say, of a very large Mexican gang. We don’t know his exact role yet, but it might be wise to put a couple of agents on him, just in case. At any rate, as soon as Chan and his bodyguard left, our man slipped in there and pinched their water glasses. He didn’t know which was whose, so he took them both. We lifted fingerprints off of them.
“Chan seems to live by modest means; nothing fancy, just nice and comfortable. He lives alone and doesn’t seem to go out much during the evenings. His bodyguard drops him off at home each evening and picks him up each morning. He doesn’t seem to own a car or drive, as near as we can tell. We don’t have enough at this point to ask for a wiretap, but that’s something to think about. I doubt that he would conduct any serious business from his office in COSCO. That would seem to be too risky. I suspect he does it at home or elsewhere. We will continue with full surveillance until something breaks.”
“OK, Ed. Keep me informed of any further developments.” Fred Gateway hung up the phone. Well, he mused, it seems that the Chinese have a hand in these raids. What would be their reason? We deployed the 101st Airborne Division there, didn’t we? They created all this mess as a diversion to tie down one of our divisions along the border to delay any possible entry into Korea. Interesting theory. Is this the reason we didn’t go into Korea, or a contributing factor? If so, it worked. The President should hear this idea tomorrow morning at the usual staff breakfast.
Chapter 29
“THAT STATE WHICH SEPARATES ITS SCHOLARS FROM ITS WARRIORS WILL HAVE ITS THINKING DONE BY COWARDS AND ITS FIGHTING DONE BY FOOLS.”
Thucydides, during the Peloponnesian War.
“Well, people, it is almost Halloween. I don’t like nasty surprises. Do any of you see any coming? Ed?”
“Mr. President, the Chinese battalions are now in Mandalay and Myitkyina. They are pouring both north and south along the Irawaddy River. Burma is slower going due to the mountainous terrain. They, the Chinese, crossed into Thailand from Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam. They will own the entire Malayan peninsula in a matter of a week or two, if not days. In both Thailand and Burma, the native peoples are rioting in the streets, attacking ethnic Chinese wherever they can find them. They are being beaten and often killed. Their businesses and homes are being looted. For that matter, stores are being looted as people gather food for hoarding in the cities. Country people are flooding onto the roads headed south to escape the Chinese onslaught. The Chinese convoys just machine gun them or run over them with their trucks as they overtake them on the roads.
“Vietnam is fighting a delaying action, and they are fighting well; but they are feeling the weight of the Chinese mass. Ethnic Chinese civilians are being hunted down and killed all over Vietnam, even third and fourth generation Sino-Vietnamese citizens.
They are being killed by the thousands everywhere.
“The Vietnamese Army appears to be trying to save that part of the rice crop that has already been harvested. We have pictures of trucks loading grain in front of the Chinese, trying to move it south. I presume they are trying to deny it to the Chinese to keep them from consuming it as they march south. What good that will do in the long term, I don’t know. If the Chinese go all the way down the peninsula, they will have to burn what they save to keep it out of Vietnamese hands. Perhaps they think they can reach an agreement with the Chinese at the last minute and feed whatever is left of their population. It would seem, though, that the rice growing delta is the real breadbasket and possible objective of the Chinese from a food perspective.
“The Chinese are now entering Assam and going down the Brahmaputra River roads. No doubt they will own all of Bangladesh in a matter of days. For that matter, they are utilizing every available road. It seems they built a road through every mountain pass in the Himalayas that might be negotiable and along north-south rivers. They are sweeping along the southern face of the Himalayas westward from the northern routes. Those forces that turned south have now flanked east from the southern axes of advance into the mountain valleys all along the border, slaughtering as they go. Slaughtering, that is, what’s left of the Indian civilians that they can find. It seems there are plenty left at that. The Indian army has no major units left, nothing seems to be any larger than a battalion, but independent battalions and company-sized units are putting up resistance. They are just being overwhelmed by sheer mass. There isn’t much left of the Indian Air Force. The Chinese are amply supplied with surface to air missiles. I anticipate that in a couple of weeks all of northern India will be in Chinese hands, and then those armies will also turn south to conquer the entire Indian peninsula. I don’t know when, or if, these two massive Army Fronts, one on the north side of the Himalayas and one on the south, will ever link up. If they do, it is quite likely to be after one takes Afghanistan and Pakistan. That will be a job in itself. Afghanistan won’t be able to offer much resistance without outside support. No one is going to come to their aid. They might be able to conduct guerilla operations for a while, but when they run out of food and ammunition, they will have a hard time surviving in the mountains. With winter coming on, and the Chinese taking every living thing, the only fuel they will have will be animal dung, and there isn’t much of that.
“So far, they have fastidiously adhered to their pledge to remain away from the Russian border as they march across Kazakhstan. They have progressed both north and south of Lake Balqash but stayed on or below the road net out of the city of Astana, the Capitol. They have just about taken all of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. It appears they concentrated on getting through the mountains of those two countries first, before winter sets in. Kazakhstan is more open high desert and much easier to cross. They have occupied our old base at Manas International Airport, which is just 19 miles from the capitol of Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. They have cut off the city, surrounded it, but apparently are not laying siege to it. Convoys detour around it. It remains to be seen which major thrust will take Pakistan; probably the southern one, coming across from India. It will be easier than the northern approach through Afghanistan. Iranians must be trembling in their boots.
“So far, they haven’t invaded Uzbekistan, but I have no doubt they will do so as soon as they can re-supply and push forward again. The convoys are continuously rolling. They don’t really pause, just slow down for a while as fresh troops and supplies become available. Uzbekistan has the best military of the Central Asian States, but it won’t last long against the Chinese onslaught. All of these states are dictatorial, tyrannical. None of these countries have allowed the civilians to keep and bear arms. Their armed forces can’t depend upon the civilian population for any paramilitary support, that is, guerilla warfare.”
Jason Thornton gazed at the map projected on the wall. God, he thought, don’t let us have to offer help to Iran. I’d almost as soon see those SOBs overrun by a Chinese horde. Out loud, he looked at Marge Talbott and nodded, “Marge.”
“Thailand asked for help last night, Mr. President. I don’t know what they expected. They threw us out several years ago, didn’t want anything to do with us, became ever more repressive and tyrannical, now they want us to save their butts, and there is no way I can see to do that.”
“Mr. President, we have picked up some unusual naval activity. It seems that China has suddenly developed a fleet of large catamarans that are modular in design. They were sighted by Admiral Johnston’s carrier battle group about a week ago. At first, it was one or two, now they are seeing more than a dozen. They seem pretty impressive. We had one of our satellites focus on their shipyards. Seems they have suddenly started pulling modules out of warehouses and putting them together. They are about two hundred feet long, of shallow draft, appear seaworthy, and capable of hauling about a thousand tons of cargo at speeds up to thirty knots. They can put together several a week. The question is what will they do with them? The possibility of an amphibious assault in the Persian Gulf to tie in with their overland forces can’t be discounted. In fact, that looks very probable.”
“When are the Chinese going to run out of manpower? Where did they get all these troops?” asked Secretary Talbott.
The Secretary of Health and Human Services, David Allison, M.D., put in his two cents. “I think I can answer that one, Marge, Mr. President. I had our demographers doing a little calculating. We believe the Chinese were lying about their population demographics over the last twenty-five or so years. Or perhaps the national leaders were being lied to or misled by local and regional party members. As rural health programs succeeded, they reduced the severe intestinal parasitisms: roundworms, hookworms, and schistosomiasis in particular and malaria in the southern provinces. They increased their general nutritional level as a result of better education, which created a greater demand for protein, particularly in their developing middle class. Vaccination programs greatly reduced childhood diseases, such as diphtheria, tetanus, and rubella. Rural potable water and sanitary sewage programs reduced diarrheal diseases such as typhoid, salmonellosis, and shigellosis, or bacillary dysentery if you prefer that term, and rotavirus infections. Consequently, more people lived, and they are living a lot longer. This increased longevity and reduced infant mortality partially offset their birth control programs.
“When the Chinese instituted the one child per family policy, it was widely disobeyed. As amniocentesis and ultrasound became common in the rural areas and allowed for the sexing of fetuses, couples often elected to abort female fetuses in order to have male children later on. Not only did they not adhere to one male child, but they often bribed the physicians and local officials into reporting that the first male child died and then had numbers two and even three. Consequently, their population is heavily skewed towards young men. This created the problem of insufficient young women for wives. This gave rise to rampant prostitution, big time, and severely enhanced the spread of AIDS. We now figure China has a population of at least two billion people. If their AIDS overall prevalence rate is 25%, they have 500 million AIDS cases. Of a population of two billion, 30% are less than thirty years old. That amounts to about 600 million people. If 65% of these are males, they have 390 million young men ready to bear arms. Worse, AIDS prevalence of this population is believed to also be about 25%, or about 98 million men. If they include young women in their forces, this number becomes even larger. If the AIDS cases are in the early stages of HIV infection and not Stages III or IV of AIDS, they can function on the battlefield. They have everything to gain and nothing to lose. Radiation will aid to their demise, depending upon their exposure rates. It will make them much more vulnerable to opportunistic infections. China gets rid of millions of AIDS infected young men, reduces their burden on the health care system, gains territory and food growing capability, brings their population back into balance and secures tremendous natural resources, all at the same time. An absolutely brilliant strategy, if I may say so.”
“Mr. President, the truck convoys just keep coming. Every convoy delivers several hundred more troops to each thrust. They run several convoys to each front every day. There are literally millions of Chinese, both men and women. No inequality there!”
That last remark earned Ed McCluskey burning glances from both Marge Talbott and Roberta Stearns. McCluskey had difficulty in repressing a smile at pulling Marge Talbott’s chain, although he thought Ms. Stearns especially attractive today.
“Where are we going to draw the line, Mr. President? Are we going to let them go into the Gulf? Into Iran? How far is far enough?”
“Ed, you don’t know how much I have been wrestling with that question. It is imperative that they be stopped, one way or another, short of the Gulf. Marge, feel out what is left of NATO, what do our European allies, God, how I hate to call them that, feel about this? What are they willing to contribute? Where do they think the line should be drawn? What are they willing to do beside talk? We have ignored them all too long. Chinese nuclear submarines with nuclear tipped missiles off our coasts scare me. Korea is lost, but we haven’t heard much from the Japanese since their offer of anti-submarine warfare technology and proposal for the DDX ships, which we are both now building. Let’s get with them as well. Their economy will absolutely crash worse than ours or Europe’s if China shuts off the oil. From now on, until this is all over, all the Service Chiefs attend every meeting. Jim, Marge, share whatever the Europeans and the Nipponese say with everyone. Let’s continue with 100 percent interdepartmental and hopefully international team effort.
“In the meantime, everyone start formulating your opinion of where we will draw the line. Think of it in terms of where one, we go it alone, two, if we form a coalition with the Europeans, three, if we form a coalition with Russia, and four, a coalition with Europe and Russia and Japan. Each scenario might have a different prospective. What will we threaten and what will we carry through against the Chinese? It will be a primary discussion Wednesday.”
“Marge, get with the Russian ambassador in the next day or two. Feel them out about how they would like a coalition with us. Be frank, find out where they are willing to take on the Chinese if we go together, or as a triumvate with Europe or quadripartite with Japan.”
“Mr. President, I would like to remind you that China has about 225 cities that have a population of over a million people, while 75% of their population is still rural. Their industries, major brain centers, economic centers, transportation, and so on, are concentrated within fifty miles of the coast. Sort of like our Boston to Charleston, SC corridor, and San Francisco to San Diego corridor. That is where we can hurt them.”
“Good thinking, Marge. Any of that kind of information State should share with Defense for targeting purposes. I know the rules of engagement require State to approve any targets that Defense wants to hit. In these targeting scenarios, think long term, not just short term.”
“Jim, get us an updated report on Chinese submarine capabilities. Let’s have the whole picture, type, class characteristics, numbers, training, capabilities, everything. Can your Navy boys put that together for Wednesday’s meeting?”
“Yes, sir, you can have it this afternoon, if you like.”
“No, let’s have it Wednesday morning and have everybody here. I know all the Service Chiefs are well aware of China’s capabilities, but I would like to hear their comments too, after the brief. Henceforth, I want them to speak freely at any time they choose. We are getting too close to a military confrontation. We will not let the Chinese have the Persian Gulf or Iran. As a matter of fact, Jim, let’s expand that into a discussion of how to defeat the Chinese submarine fleet in particular and the Chinese Navy in general. Let’s go to work, people.”
“Peggy, get Congressman Chris Farrel on the line for me, please.”
After a few moments, Peggy walked into the Oval Office. “Congressman Farrel is in a House Ways and Means Committee meeting right now, Mr. President. He will interrupt the meeting, if you wish him to speak with you.”
