“Mr. Secretary, what of other individual small arms and crew served weapons, such as machine guns, mortars and hand grenades? Certainly, we will need an increase in those weapons for training, if for no other purpose.”
“Good thought, General Leonard. We will look at that later. I can see a modest need for an increase in those weapons. Right now, though, we will concentrate on the rifles, as we are about to deplete all our reserve stocks supplying the Afghans and surviving Pakistanis. Any other questions? No, well then, get back to me in a week with progress reports. Thank you, gentlemen.”
“Mr. President, the Chinese Ambassador, His Excellency Kuan Sheng, is here for his appointment.”
“Thank you, Peggy, have Johnny bring him in, and have tea served for the Ambassador.” The President rose from his desk and walked around it to greet Mr. Kuan. “I am glad to see you, Mr. Ambassador. Please have a chair,” indicating with a flourish of his hand to a chair at the end of the coffee table while he took another chair adjacent to it.
“Thank you, Mr. President. I am afraid my country is most upset with your letter of concerns about the progress of the Chinese Armies in the field. I have a written answer for you, which we hope assuages your concerns, but also points out certain vulnerabilities of your country. Please view this with an objective concern. China does not at all wish to threaten our greatest trading partner and the first true country of democracy. That would destroy our own economy. Rather, it is to inform you of the price you will be expected to pay if you interfere with China’s destiny.” The Ambassador handed Jason Thornton a letter. Jason Thornton extended his hand and took it.
Dear President Thornton:
The People’s Republic of China is most distressed that you, the President of the greatest nation of the Twentieth Century and our greatest trading partner, would threaten our nation with nuclear holocaust when we pose absolutely no threat to you.
You have expressed concern about the possibility of our invasion of Iran and the threat we pose to the Persian Gulf area, the Middle East in general, and the flow of petroleum to your county, Europe, Japan and the rest of the world. We assure you, Mr. President, and the rest of the world as well, that we do not intend to invade Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia or any of the Persian Gulf states. We understand your concern for a continued flow of oil into the world market. We will do nothing to disrupt that flow from these sources. We will do nothing which threatens the United States or Europe unless we are similarly threatened. There have already been too many nuclear explosions over the last six months for eternity. Millions have already died this year over misunderstandings. Let us hope there are no more.
Should, however, the United States declare war, or launch an undeclared war in the form of a surprise attack on the People’s Republic of China or her armed forces anywhere in the world, the People’s Republic of China will respond with massive retaliation against your nation. You are no doubt aware that we have numerous nuclear missile carrying submarines armed with both biological and nuclear weapons off both coasts of North America. In addition, the garrison in the Republic of Panama is armed with intermediate range missiles that are tipped with multiple re-entry vehicle warheads that have an interesting array of biological weapons as well as nuclear warheads. Each is programmed to strike a different American target should war erupt between our countries. Should armed conflict come between our countries, it is doubtful that the United States will continue to exist in its present state. The leader of so wise and powerful a nation as the United States with three hundred million citizens would surely not put it in the path of destruction when your nation is not threatened.
The People’s Republic of China most sincerely hopes you will not regard this as a threat or a challenge, but merely as a matter of informing you of our capabilities. You are the leader of the western world, and it is China’s destiny to be the leader of the eastern world. Together, we can ensure that the world will be a peaceful and prosperous world in which to work and play and love.
Most respectfully,
The People’s Republic of China
Jason Thornton took off his glasses and rubbed his eyes. He looked at the Chinese Ambassador, who avoided his gaze.
“This memorandum certainly spells it out very clearly, Mr. Ambassador. Your country doesn’t want war any more than mine does. Yet you are prepared to go the distance of nuclear war with us if we interfere with your invasion of other countries. To make sure there are no misunderstandings, Mr. Ambassador, I will reiterate. Iran, the Persian Gulf States, Saudi Arabia and Iraq are off limits to China. If one soldier sets foot across any of those borders, make no mistake, we will go to war over it.”
“My country fully understands and appreciates your position, Mr. President. We read western military history in China as well as Asian military history. We are acutely aware of the tragedy that happened through miscommunication and misunderstandings of motives that led to the terrible Russo-Finnish War of 1939-1940. The terrible price paid by both sides that could have been avoided through clear communication if each side only understood from where the other was coming and why. I have the highest confidence that our Supreme Council will honor its word and remain a considerable distance from those borders, sufficiently so that you can monitor those said borders from your now many functional satellites. In fact, I have been authorized to invite you to send your observers and representatives to the eastern side of the borders of those named countries. Your people will be treated as our guests with the greatest attention and care to ensure that no harm comes to them whatsoever. They will be provided with vehicles, guides, or whatever they wish to conduct their observations. Or, they can bring their own vehicles and equipment, whatever you and they decide is fine with us. They will not be interfered with in any way. They will have one hundred percent freedom of movement, to come and go, and go anywhere, at any time, as they choose. They can set up satellite communications and convey their findings to you at any time. In fact, we would be delighted to have their company. We find such experts are usually quite intelligent and most amiable. They make very good company. This invitation extends not only to your government representatives, but to members of the western press as well. If I might add, journalists generally do not make quite as good company as your representatives.”
“Your offer is most generous, Mr. Ambassador. I will share this communication with the appropriate people in this government. I thank you and the People’s Republic for spelling it out so clearly; more so, I must say, than most of your written communications. There is no ambiguity here that we normally find in our written communiqués.”
“Thank you, Mr. President. I am also instructed to inform you that similar letters have been sent to the governments of Russia, Japan, and interested European nations. If there are no other subjects of discussion, then I will be on my way to let you continue with your affairs of state. Thank you for the time and the very excellent tea, which, I understand, is a product of my country.”
“It is, Mr. Ambassador, and I must admit, the world’s finest tea. Give my respects to Mrs. Kuan. Good day, Mr. Ambassador.”
Jason Thornton hit a buzzer on his desk, and Johnny Withers came in to escort the ambassador out. “Peggy, come in, please,” Thornton called over the intercom. He handed her the letter the ambassador had delivered.
“Peggy, make a copy of this for all of the service chiefs, each member of my cabinet, and the chairs of the House and Senate Committees on Foreign Relations and Defense. See that they all get it before close of business today. I want to discuss it at our tri-weekly breakfast meeting tomorrow. Label it Top Secret, no Critical. Put a memorandum on it from me that they are not to share this with members of their respective committees at this time.”
Chapter 31
Presidential Friday Staff Meeting, 14 November 2022
“Everybody continue to eat while somebody else is talking. What do you have, Ed?”
“Mr. President, the Chinese Army Front of the Asian Subcontinent has split apart. We have named the Army Group moving south through the Indian Peninsula, Army Group South. The other group going across the to of India, we have named Indian Army Group West. Army Group West is now into eastern Pakistan. It appears to be further subdividing into three armies. It appears that one Army will swing northwest, one group will swing south southwestward in the direction of the Iranian border, and the central army will move due west towards Afghanistan. It appears they plan to link with what we call the Central Asian Army Front. Strictly conjecture on our part, but we think the two Army Fronts will link up somewhere along the Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan border. We have no people on the ground in any of these areas due to the threat of radioactive fallout. All of this information is a result of satellite intelligence and monitoring radio signals between the various units.
“Another interesting fact has come to light, Mr. President. You recall all those merchant ships that were tied up in Chinese harbors? We discovered that they are being converted into troop carriers. That means they are planning an amphibious invasion. Our demographers indicate that they can field several million more people. How well trained they are is anybody’s guess. They are using the home guard, so to speak. These home guard units never trained together in units larger than a battalion. Obviously, they have been planning this for years. Each battalion is assigned a line of march and told to live off the land by whatever means. They march until the battalion ceases to exist. Then they throw another one in behind it on the same line of march to continue until they reach the sea or their final objective, wherever that is. Any survivors of the first unit simply join the second unit. The question is: why all those troop ships? Do they plan to bring troops home in them? I don’t think so. The fleet of ocean-going catamarans suggests that they intend to have an oceanic sea line of supply and communications. They will have their armies on the borders of Iran on the north and east, so why the seagoing effort? Do they plan to keep them supplied on the coasts by ship? There aren’t very many good harbors on the Arabian Sea. Do they intend to take the Japanese Islands? That has the Japanese really concerned, I’ll bet. Or, they might take Taiwan and eliminate their population, and then move on to Japan.
“Pakistan? In another month or less, they will be through Pakistan; minimal or no organized resistance there, especially in the central and southern and western parts. There wasn’t a city of 100,000 or more that didn’t take a nuclear hit of some size. Too many nukes and fallout created real survivor problems. There are small pockets of survivors in the mountain valleys, but who knows how long they will last. The Chinese will find out the hard way about Pakhtunwahli, the way of the Pakhtun, which is the proper term for these people, not Pathan. They will fight for vengeance if it takes one hundred years or until they are all dead. The Chinese will follow the Indus and Sutlej Rivers all the way through Hydrabad and take Karachi en route, provided the fallout has decreased to their definition of tolerable levels. Surviving Pakistani Army units might block some critical passes for a while, but the Chinese will undoubtedly flank south of the Sulaiman Mountain Range and come up on the west side.
“Afghanistan, well, the Afghanis will play hell with their supply lines for a while, they are really Pushtuns, or Pakhtuns if you prefer, as well. The only difference between Afghans and Pakistanis is tribal. They really are the same people. The British in the form of Sir Henry Durand drew the line dividing those countries on a map from mountain top to mountain top in 1893. In so doing, he cut across more than a dozen Pakhtun tribes. If the Chinese go to nerve gas or something like that over wide areas or whole villages, however, they won’t last long. Persistent agents, artillery or aircraft delivered, such as VX nerve gas in cooler and cold weather or the use of a mustard formulation in warmer weather that contaminates the land for a week or two will put a major restraint on guerilla warfare. The Chinese might get a couple of hundred million dollars in raw opium out of Afghanistan; otherwise, there isn’t much reason for them to pause there.”
“Ms. Stearns, do you have any ideas on their ultimate objective?”
“Only conjecture, Mr. President. It would seem the Persian Gulf would be most logical. Still, the Chinese are masters at what appears to be illogical, only to be completely logical in the long term. They think in generations, while we think in months to a few years at most. I don’t believe they plan to invade North America, that is so improbable, but you never know.” She almost said, We think only in terms of the next election, but she bit her lip and thought better of it.
“All right, folks, I have about made up my mind. If they threaten Iran, we have to go. The only way we can go is nuclear. So, where do we hurt them, the Chinese littoral, along the Pacific Rim, as Marge previously suggested, or their armies in the field? General Craig, what are your suggestions?”
“The Romans once faced a somewhat similar situation with an upstart Carthaginian named Hannibal. They couldn’t defeat him tactically on the battlefield, so they defeated him strategically. They decided to cut his supply lines and let him wither on the vine, so to speak, that is, in the field. If we take out their major coastal cities and ordnance centers and naval centers, what will the armies in the field do? Soon, they will run out of ammunition. They have practiced a scorched earth policy as they moved, so there is nothing left for them to eat behind themselves, rather like Napoleon’s strategic retreat from Moscow in the middle of winter, when most of his army froze and starved to death. If we cut their strategic sources, that is, we take out their production centers, then they, too, will wither on the vine.
“Alternatively, we can try and strategically interdict their supply lines. Remember, though, we couldn’t stop the flow of men and materiel down the Ho Chi Minh Trail in the Vietnam war. There is no way we can interdict their overland supply routes. It might apply to the high seas, however. Even if we do interdict them on the high seas, that does not negate their overland supply routes. Oceanic interdiction means we will have to neutralize their fleets of catamarans, troop carrying ships, and their submarine fleet. The order of targeting will have to be, above all, their submarine fleet, followed by their surface fleet of new destroyers and cruisers, then their cargo ships and catamarans. That is not as effective as destroying the manufacturing centers, but then, we have found in World War II, Vietnam, and the Balkans, that strategic bombing doesn’t always work either. With the use of nuclear weapons as opposed to conventional bombs, that will in all likelihood change. If we go nuclear after their strategic industrial centers, they won’t have time or, hopefully, the means to rebuild in the next five to ten years. We can deliver nuclear warheads via intercontinental missiles and submarine launched missiles, on their centers, but what of our coastal cities within reach of their missile carrying submarines? We don’t have a missile defense umbrella over this country. Your predecessor saw to that. Do we give the Chinese another warning that attacking Iran will not be tolerated and surrender the element of surprise, or attack without warning? We have already told them we will not allow the invasion of Iran. What of a declaration of war from Congress before we launch into nuclear war? I see no conventional alternative that would be anywhere effective, and certainly not worth the cost, Mr. President. It will have to be a simultaneous attack on their missile carrying capabilities, their ships and submarines, and nuclear attack on their homeland.”
